Tesla (TSLA) on Friday disclosed fourthquarter vehicle deliveries that missed forecasts while reporting a second straight annual decline in deliveries.
In the fourth quarter, Tesla's totalvehicle deliveries totaled 418,227, a 15% drop from the 495,570 vehicles it delivered in the same period last year.
The company's fourth quarter delivery totalalso fell short of Wall Street forecasts, which stood at just under 423,000 ahead of the release. Tesla stock was up about 1% following the release early
Friday.
For the full year, Tesla delivered 1.64million vehicles, in line with expectations and an 8% drop compared to 2024. This marked the second straight year of annual sales declines for the EV maker.
Earlier this week, Tesla published on itsinvestor relations site Wall Street consensus estimates, which it said were 422,850. That figure was well below the 445,000 vehicle delivery estimate as
compiled by Bloomberg.
Some commentators speculated that Tesla'srelease of these estimates meant the company was trying to get ahead of a poor delivery report and cushion the blow.
A fourth quarter delivery drop is notexactly a surprise, however, given the loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit at the start of the quarter. The question was how bad the drop would be in the US and
whether international markets could overcome sales losses in the US.
Cox Automotive's Kelley Blue Book estimatesTesla US sales fell to 125,900 units in the quarter, down 22.4%. The company did not break out US and international delivery figures on Friday.
Though for some Wall Street analysts, thestory on Tesla stock is about far more than how many cars it is getting into the hands of customers each quarter.
"Perhaps more importantly though, thenarrative around robotaxi remains strong despite the size of the fleet tracking smaller than expected thus far," Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu wrote.
"In late October, [CEO] Elon Muskalluded to 1,000 vehicles in the Bay Area and 500 or more in Austin. Our tracking suggests they are not going to achieve these levels. However, Tesla
did remove the safety driver in Austin this past weekend for testing internal validation, suggesting a wider roll-out is coming soon."
Earlier this week, Wedbush analyst Dan Ivesnamed Tesla one of his top AI plays for 2026, with the "robotics chapter" for the company set to begin.
"Heading into 2026 this marks amonster year ahead for Tesla and Musk," Ives wrote.
"We believe the march to an AI drivenvaluation for TSLA over the next 6-9 months has now begun in our view with FSD [full self driving] and autonomous penetration of Tesla's installed base and
the acceleration of Cybercab in the US representing the golden goose for Musk & Co."