The excitement is starting to build for a lot of hot companies debuting on public markets this year, led by potential initial public offerings (IPOs) for Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPAX.PVT) and Sam Altman's OpenAI (OPAI.PVT).
One thing to remember, however, is that post-IPO life lately hasn't been great for investors who got sucked into the early hype.
The post IPO trade: The average 2026 IPO has generated a first-day return of 19%, in line with the 30-year median, according to new data crunched by Goldman Sachs. However, returns have deteriorated in the following weeks, as reflected in the 1% year-to-date decline in the "GS Liquid IPO Index."
The index is composed on a rolling basis of the last 70 liquid US companies that were listed via IPO or direct listing — it has returned a 1% decline year to date vs. a 12% gain for the small-cap Russell 2000 (^RUT).
The call out: Goldman strategist Ben Snider explained, "Consistent with the results of our long-term study of IPO returns, the best-performing recent IPOs have been characterized by elevated revenue growth and a near-term path to profitability. The average recent IPO has traded particularly poorly ahead of lockup expiration, but the share price recovery afterward has been stronger than the historical average."
"IPOs during the past decade have declined by an average of 4% in the weeks prior to the conclusion of the standard 180-day lockup window," Snider continued. "This pattern has generally been more pronounced and more prolonged for recent offerings. Nonetheless, the average recent IPO has recovered to its initial closing pricing within three months following lockup expiration."
2026 IPO market, at a glance: So far in 2026, there have been 25 IPOs greater than $25 million in value, totaling $14 billion in gross proceeds. This represents a nearly 80% increase in both the number and value of IPOs relative to this time last year, Snider said.
Roughly 40% of this year’s IPOs have been industrial companies compared with the historical annual average of 10% since 1995. In contrast, there have been no IPOs year to date in the information technology sector, despite the sector representing 25% of IPOs since 1995.
Snider expects roughly 100 IPOs totaling $160 billion will come to market this year, adjusted from a previous forecast of 120 IPOs totaling $160 billion.
"Geopolitical uncertainty and recent equity market volatility suggest there will be fewer IPOs this year than we had previously expected. The 20% concentration of the IPO backlog since 2025 in software is another headwind," Snider added.
Bottom line: Finding success in public markets after a super hyped IPO isn't guaranteed for a company, no matter how amazing the prospectus sounds. Just look at the post-IPO stock price disaster stories of Beyond Meat (BYND) and Snap (SNAP).
Keep this in mind as the hype machine begins to spin out of control a week before any SpaceX and OpenAI IPO this year or next.