Intel (INTC) is expected to begin shippingApple’s (AAPL) lowest-end M processor as early as 2027,TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says. Via X, he added, “There have long been market rumors that Intel could become anadvanced-node foundry supplier to Apple, but visibility around this had
remained low. My latest industry surveys, however, indicate that visibility on
Intel becoming an advanced-node supplier to Apple has recently improved
significantly. Apple previously signed an NDA with Intel and obtained the
advanced-node 18AP PDK 0.9.1GA. The key simulation and research projects (such
as PPA) are tracking in line with expectations, and Apple is now waiting for
Intel to release PDK 1.0/1.1, currently scheduled for 1Q26. Apple’s plan is for Intel to begin shipping its lowest-end M processor,utilizing the 18AP advanced node, as early as 2Q-3Q27, but the actual timeline
remains contingent on development progress following the receipt of PDK
1.0/1.1. Apple’s lowest-end M processor is currently usedin the MacBook Air and iPad Pro mainly, with combined shipments of roughly 20
million units for 2025. As MacBook Air shipments in 2026 may be impacted by a
new more-affordable MacBook model using an iPhone-class processor, shipments of
lowest-end M processor in both 2026 and 2027 are expected to be 15-20 million
units. In absolute terms, order volumes for the lowest-end M processor are
relatively small and virtually no material impact on TSMC’s (TSM) fundamentals or its technology leadership over the nextseveral years. However, the signaling and trend implications for Apple and
Intel are meaningful: 1. For Apple: In addition to showing strong support for
the Trump administration’s strongly promoted ‘Made in USA’ policy, Apple, while clearlyexpected to remain highly dependent on TSMC’s advancednodes for the foreseeable future, still needs to secure a second source to meet
supply-chain management requirements. 2. For Intel: The significance of winning
Apple’s advanced-node orders far exceeds the direct revenueand profit contribution from this business. Although Intel will still be unable
to compete head-to-head with TSMC over the next several years, this suggests
that the worst may soon be over for the IFS business. Looking ahead, the 14A
node and beyond could capture more orders from Apple and other tier-one
customers, turning Intel’s long-term outlook morepositive.”
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