President Donald Trump claimed late Tuesday that Venezuela will be "turning over" between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S. In the North Atlantic, American forces pursued a ghost fleet tanker now claiming Russian protection, as the geopolitical situation surrounding the U.S. military action in Caracas continued to evolve.
Trump, in a Truth Social post after Tuesday's stock market close, announced that "interim authorities" in Venezuela "will be turning over between 30 and 50 million" barrels of sanctioned oil to the U.S.
"This oil will be sold at its market price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States," Trump wrote.
The president added that the oil barrels will be taken by storage ships and brought "directly" to the U.S.
Early Wednesday, CNBC reported that oil sales from Venezuela to the U.S. will continue indefinitely and sanctions will be rolled back.
U.S. oil futures on Wednesday declined less than 1% to $56.88 per barrel, according to CME Group.
Russia-U.S. Flashpoint
Meanwhile, as Trump claims millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil is coming to the U.S., the Wall Street Journal reported late Tuesday that Russia had sent a submarine and other naval assets to escort an empty oil tanker that has been evading the U.S. blockade for weeks.
The ship, which is now flying the Russian flag, did not dock in Venezuela to load with oil. The U.S. Coast Guard has pursued the empty vessel into the Atlantic Ocean, according to the Wall Street Journal. It is the latest U.S. effort to crack down on tankers transporting black-market oil sold by Russia around the world. There are reports in recent months of several ghost tankers claiming Russian protection as they allegedly move sanctioned oil.
However, while Venezuela and its vast oil reserves dominate the headlines this week, the stock market reaction has been muted, following the big upward swing Monday for a wide group of oil-related stocks.
Venezuela Oil Shake Up
After the early Saturday military strike where the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, flying them to New York City to face criminal charges, Trump told the media that U.S. oil companies will need to make "big investments" in Venezuela's oil infrastructure. Trump added that oil companies are "ready to go."
The major geopolitical shake-up sent oil-related stocks broadly higher in Monday's stock market. Refiner Valero Energy (VLO), along with oil services leaders Halliburton (HAL) and Schlumberger (SLB) all soared more than 7% on Monday.
Supermajor Chevron (CVX), the lone U.S. oil producer with ongoing operations in Venezuela, is widely seen as best positioned in the current situation.
However, after the initial boost to oil stocks on Monday, many plays sank Tuesday amid analysis that U.S. oil and gas producers are unlikely in the near-term to begin investing in Venezuela.
Rystad Energy released analysis Tuesday that Venezuela could get back to producing 3 million barrels per day only by 204o and with about $183 billion of oil and gas investment from 2026. That is equivalent to around one year of current North American onshore capital spending, according to Rystad.
The firm added that only around 300,000 to 350,000 barrels of oil per day of production could be "restored quickly with limited spend."
In 2025, Venezuela produced about 900,000 barrels per day of heavy crude, according to Morgan Stanley — less than 1% of global consumption.
Supermajor Chevron Stands To Gain
Chevron stock advanced around 1.7% prior to Wednesday's stock market after sinking 4.5% to 156.54 on Tuesday. That move lower nearly took out all of Monday's 5.1% gain for CVX.
Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott wrote Monday that Chevron is "arguably best positioned to scale up production" in Venezuela.
Meanwhile, fellow supermajor Exxon Mobil (XOM) edged up around 0.2% early Wednesday. XOM enters the stock market open down 1.3% on the week despite booking a 2.3% gain Monday.
ConocoPhillips (COP) also advanced less than 1% on Wednesday. COP jumped 2.6% in Monday's stock market but fell more than 2% on Tuesday.
Where Venezuela Oil Will Go?
Andrew Meleney, portfolio manager at Infrastructure Capital Management, wrote late Monday that "since the crude oil from Venezuela is heavy, it does not act as a direct replacement for the light barrels coming from most domestic shale basins."
"The access to cheaper heavy crude should improve U.S. refinery economics which will support refinery runs and midstream barrels getting to the Gulf Coast," Meleney said.
The most immediate impact could be that Canadian barrels, that were required to meet Gulf Coast heavy crude runs, are displaced, according to Meleney.
"Permian crude is lighter so would only be replaced if refineries run a higher percentage of heavy crude oil," he added.
Oil Services And Refining Stocks In Play
Refiners standing to capitalize on the current situation include both Exxon and Chevron.
Valero Energy, another refiner, reversed 1.3% lower in Tuesday trade after soaring more than 8% on Monday. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) also slumped 2.6% on Tuesday but is still up on the week after booking a 6% gain in Monday's stock market.
Exxon, Marathon and Saudi Aramco-owned Motiva Enterprises own the largest U.S. refineries, sited along the Gulf Coast. Most process the type of heavy crudes exported by Venezuela.
Among oilfield services firms, Halliburton (HAL) and SLB (SLB), formerly Schlumberger, both firms booked big gains Monday. However, HAL and SLB both retreated Tuesday.
Baker Hughes (BKR) enters Wednesday's stock market up 4.8% on the week while Kinder Morgan (KMI) has declined 3.2% through the first two days of this week's market action.
"Should Western oil majors increase investment in the country, energy services companies including SLB, HAL and BKR could see tailwinds from both increased activity as well as recouping unpaid receivables," McDermott wrote Monday.
Chevron stock has a 32 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. The stock also has a 49 Relative Strength Rating and a 34 EPS Rating.