- Investors are eyeing a handful of new market-moving catalysts ahead of the holiday this week.
- There's a slew of economic data releases scheduled before Thanksgiving.
- Trading could be choppy given the thinner liquidity in the short week, analysts say.
It's a short but potentially busy week formarkets.
After a tough week of losses and intensevolatility, investors are on the lookout for the next potential catalyst that
could move stocks.
"Which means the recent wide gyrationsin this increasingly volatile market are very likely to persist,"Rosenberg wrote on Monday regarding the outlook for the week ahead.
The Thanksgiving week has also beenhistorically strong for stock investors. Since 1945, the S&P 500 has gained a median 0.76% during the weekof Thanksgiving, according to an analysis from Bespoke Investment.
The market is trying to mount a comebackfrom losses incurred last week, with investors limping after a brutal sell-off that's ripped through tech and crypto. Counterto the usual seasonal trends, stocks are on track for a losing month, with
the Nasdaq 100 down more than 6% from its levels at the endof October.
Here's everything investors will be payingattention to this week.
[Consumer data]
More clarity is coming on the state ofthe US consumer after the government's longest-evershutdown has come to an end.
The Conference Board's ConsumerConfidence Survey for the month of November isdue out on Wednesday.
Americans' willingness to spend has been afocus for investors, who are trying to gauge the path of the economy and the
potential for more Fed rate cuts.
The University of Michigan's ConsumerSentiment Survey fell to its lowest level in three years in November, offering
some indication about how dour Americans feel about their finances.
"Consumers remain frustrated about thepersistence of high prices and weakening incomes," the University of
Michigan said in its November release.
[Inflation data]
Investors will get a glimpse of moreinflation data this week with the September Producer Price Index onTuesday morning. That's another data point that could shape the Fed's view
on inflation heading into its December policy meeting,particularly since the government isn't releasing an official inflation report for the month of October.
The odds of a December rate cut have whipsawed, but recently shiftedin favor of another 25 basis-point decrease in December. The priced-in
probability that the Fed will lower rates next month inched up to 76.7% on
Monday, up from a 42.4% probability priced in last week, according to the CME
FedWatch tool.
[Jobless claims]
Weekly jobless claims will be released on Wednesday. Economists expect 225,000Americans to have filed an initial claim for unemployment benefits, up from the prior week's 220,000initial claims.
The job market has become a key focus for investors sinceit began flashing signs of weakness this summer. Incomplete jobs data for
October has also complicated the outlook for Fed rate cuts.
"There is enough data to suggest thatinflation has not skyrocketed, and that the labor market is cooling, and this
combination warrants another rate cut," Kerux's Laut said.
[Housing data]
Investors will take in the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for themonth of September on Tuesday.
Pending home sales for the month of October are also coming out tomorrow.Economists expect sales to remain flat for the month.
Both datapoints will give an indication ofhow activity is faring in the housing market, a key interest-rate sensitive sector of theeconomy. A deep freeze in sales has extended for the last severalyears, thanks to high home prices and high rates that have held back both
buyers and sellers.